Year-End Stainless Steel Cost and Prices Strengthen Simultaneously, Narrowing Inversion Boosts Market Confidence [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 31, 2025 17:09

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This week, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem with production costs, narrowing losses for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, cash cost losses based on current raw material prices reached 2.42% this week; when calculated using raw material inventory costs, the cash cost loss ratio remained at 0.77%.

On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued their upward trend this week. Market impacts from news related to Indonesian nickel mine approvals persisted, coupled with a supply-demand mismatch where NPI producers may further cut production in January while stainless steel mills are expected to increase output, strengthening market confidence in nickel pig iron and leading to sustained price increases. As of Friday, the price of 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 18.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 922.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, the continued strength in stainless steel futures drove spot prices higher this week, alongside the ongoing rise in high-grade NPI prices. Stainless steel scrap maintained a better economic advantage compared to high-grade NPI, leading to a price increase as well. By Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China increased by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest offer around 9,300 yuan/mt.

On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices halted their decline this week, stabilizing. Despite high production levels and relatively ample supply in December, expected output increases from stainless steel mills limited apparent surplus in market supply. Additionally, tight supply and price increases for mainstream ore recently helped ferrochrome prices stop falling and stabilize. As of Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were flat WoW, settling at 8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

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